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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."